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讲座题目

The Golden Years' Dividend: The Effects of Old Age Allowances on Nursing Home Expenditures

主讲人

刘子宁，中央财经大学保险学院副教授，毕业于北京大学经济学院经济学博士，从事健康保险、养老经济学和保险经济学等研究。主持一项国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目，担任亚太风险管理与保险学协会的常务理事。在Health Economics、China Economic Review、Journal of Pension Economics & Finance、《金融研究》、《经济科学》等国内外期刊发表论文数篇。

讲座时间

2025年6月6日14:00

讲座地点

金融学院348教室

内容摘要

This paper evaluates the impact of the old age allowance on nursing home expenditures among the senior elderly in China. We employ a regression discontinuity design that leverages the program’s age-based eligibility threshold, which provides non-contributory monthly payments to individuals upon reaching age 80. Using administrative data, we find that while the allowance does not significantly affect the likelihood of nursing home residency, it increases monthly nursing home expenditures by over 500 Yuan for those living in nursing homes—an amount that exceeds the value of the allowance itself (100 Yuan). This increase is primarily driven by a shift toward more expensive accommodations, rather than upgrades to advanced care facilities or increases in food or personal care spending. Additionally, we find suggestive evidence that this relatively modest cash transfer can help slow functional decline, reducing the probability of adverse health changes by about one percentage point among otherwise healthy elderly individuals. These findings underscore the broader potential benefits of targeted social welfare programs for the oldest-old population.