2024年第四季度中国宏观金融分析报告

（中文摘要）

中国社会科学院金融研究所宏观金融分析团队

展望2025：稳中求进  大有可为

国际形势看：2024年，全球政策不确定性、供应链重构及地缘政治风险贯穿全年，全球经济增长分化显著。美国经济以2.9%的增速超预期增长。与此同时，德国等欧洲经济体陷入衰退，多数国家维持低增长。大宗商品价格波动回落，推动全球通胀逐步回归正常区间，主要发达经济体CPI降至2%～3%。各国央行货币政策分化明显：欧元区和加拿大率先降息，美联储和英国央行降息步伐审慎，而日本结束零利率政策开始加息。尽管股票市场表现强劲，美股屡创新高，但债券市场因无法达成对增长和通胀的一致预期而陷入混沌状态，美债收益率逆势攀升。

国内形势看：2024年9月下旬以来，中央加力推出一揽子增量政策，四季度经济运行回升向好，全年GDP同比增长5.0%，顺利完成预期目标。经济运行呈现结构性复苏特征，表现为：供给恢复快于需求，物价延续低位运行；以旧换新政策提振耐用品消费，发展型消费增长放缓；制造业投资保持韧性，房地产投资降幅扩大。消费需求不足仍是经济内循环不畅的主要堵点。作为居民财富蓄水池，资本市场和房地产市场在2025年初出现回暖迹象。

专题分析看：特朗普重返白宫后，以快节奏和强手段开启了新一轮“改革开放”进程。改革方面，主要依赖于改革政府、弱化行政权威和放松监管等举措，重塑美国政府的行政架构与经济治理模式；开放方面，采取“以退为进”策略，通过高关税、收紧移民政策以及扩张性孤立主义等手段，持续施加美国在关键领域的影响力。特朗普2.0的一系列政策措施会负向影响中国经济增长，减少资本流入，并给人民币汇率带来短期贬值压力。

展望2025：2025年，全球宏观金融形势预计呈现三个主要特征。首先，“特朗普冲击”加剧政策不确定性；其次，全球公共债务突破100万亿美元，利息负担将达到二战以来最高水平，财政可持续性压力与政策分歧加剧市场避险情绪。最后，各国政策分化进一步凸显，货币政策节奏差异扩大，关税作为不确定性放大器和外汇市场作为政策外溢性主要渠道，成为掣肘政策平衡的关键因素。2025年，中国经济应坚持稳中求进，将提振居民消费作为工作重点，改善收入预期和增加存量财富“双管齐下”。中央财政应抓住低利率窗口期积极扩张，将较多的政府部门存量财富向居民部门适度转移，推动宏观经济再平衡。一是深化收入分配、财富积累、民营经济等重点领域改革，在全球改革竞争中占领先机。二是财政货币政策总量积极加力，结构调整优化。三是优化收入分配格局，健全社会保障体系，缓解中低收入群体消费的后顾之忧。四是锚定资产价格目标，及早储备并推出增量政策，修复居民部门资产负债表。

CHINA MACRO FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 2024Q4

（SUMMARY）

CMFA Team at Institute of Finance & Banking,

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

OUTLOOK FOR 2025:

Progressing Steadily with Great Promise

In 2024, the global landscape is marked by persistent policy uncertainty, supply chain restructuring, and geopolitical risks, leading to significant disparities in economic growth. The U.S. economy has exceeded expectations with a growth rate of 2.9%. In contrast, European economies, e.g. Germany, are experiencing recessions, with most countries maintaining low growth rates. Commodity price volatility is retreating, facilitating a gradual return of global inflation to normal levels, as the consumer price index (CPI) in major developed economies stabilizes between 2% and 3%. Central bank policies exhibit clear divergence: the Eurozone and Canada are the first to initiate interest rate cuts, while the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England approach cuts cautiously, and Japan concludes its zero interest rate policy to begin increasing rates. Despite a strong performance in equity markets, with U.S. stocks reaching new highs, the bond market remains chaotic due to conflicting expectations regarding growth and inflation, causing U.S. treasury yields to rise against the trend.

Domestically, since late September 2024, the central government has implemented a comprehensive set of incremental policies, resulting in a rebound in economic activity during the fourth quarter, with a year-on-year GDP growth of 5.0%, successfully meeting expectations. The economic recovery exhibits structural characteristics, including a faster restoration of supply than demand and a continuation of low price levels. The "old-for-new" policy stimulates durable goods consumption, while growth in development-related consumption slows. Manufacturing investment shows resilience, whereas declines in real estate investment widen. Insufficient consumer demand remains a primary bottleneck to the internal circulation of the economy. As reservoirs of household wealth, the capital and real estate markets show signs of warming in early 2025.

The thematic analysis focuses on the "Trump Shock." Following his return to the White House, Donald Trump has initiated a new round of "reform and opening-up" at a swift pace and with assertive measures. His reform strategy primarily relies on restructuring the government, diminishing administrative authority, and loosening regulatory constraints to reshape the administrative framework and economic governance in the U.S. In terms of opening up, a "retreat to advance" strategy is being employed, utilizing high tariffs, tightened immigration policies, and an expansionary form of isolationism to consolidate American influence in critical sectors. The series of Trump 2.0 policies is expected to negatively impact China's economic growth, reduce capital inflows, and exert short-term devaluation pressure on the renminbi exchange rate.

Outlook for 2025:

In 2025, the global macro-financial environment is expected to display three key characteristics. Firstly, the "Trump shock" will exacerbate policy uncertainty. Secondly, global public debt is projected to surpass $100 trillion, with interest burdens reaching their highest levels since World War II, intensifying fiscal sustainability pressures and driving risk-averse market sentiment. Lastly, further divergence in national policies will become evident, with expanded differences in monetary policy approaches; tariffs will act as amplifiers of uncertainty, and the foreign exchange market will serve as a primary channel for policy spillover effects, becoming critical factors in policy balance.

China's economy in 2025 should focus on stability and progress by prioritizing the boost of household consumption while improving income expectations and increasing existing wealth through dual approaches. The central government should seize the low-interest window to expand actively, moderately reallocating significant government-held wealth to households, thereby fostering macroeconomic rebalancing. Key strategies should include: deepening reforms in income distribution, wealth accumulation, and the private sector to secure a competitive edge in global reform; reinforcing the total amount of fiscal and monetary policies while optimizing structural adjustments; enhancing the income distribution landscape, improving the social security system, and alleviating concerns regarding consumption among middle- and low-income groups; and anchoring asset price targets by proactively reserving and launching incremental policies to repair the asset-liability balance of households.

（转自：中国社会科学院金融研究所）